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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)

Khimik — Omskie Krylia

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Model prediction for 11 November

Khimik39%
Draw in regulation24%
Omskie Krylia38%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Khimik 50%, Omskie Krylia 50% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.1.

Facts

  • League table: Khimik — No. 8, 26 pts; Omskie Krylia — No. 1, 34 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Omskie Krylia: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Khimik 3 wins, Omskie Krylia 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Khimik — Omskie Krylia2.2–2.1
Khimik to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Omskie Krylia to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)30%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)70%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Khimik
  • Khimik goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Khimik

  • 04.11away · Metallurg Novokuznetsk6:5
  • 02.11away · Krasnoyarsk4:2
  • 30.10away · HC Norilsk4:5
  • 22.10Kaluga2:3 SO
  • 20.10AKM2:3 SO

Omskie Krylia

  • 04.11Chelmet Chelyabinsk2:1
  • 02.11Magnitka Magnitogorsk1:0
  • 30.10Orsk3:2 SO
  • 24.10away · Perm3:2
  • 22.10away · Toros Neftekamsk2:0

Head to head

  • 25.01.2026Khimik — Omskie Krylia3:0
  • 31.10.2025Omskie Krylia — Khimik3:2 SO
  • 14.03.2025Omskie Krylia — Khimik1:4
  • 05.09.2024Khimik — Omskie Krylia4:0
  • 07.02.2024Khimik — Omskie Krylia4:5 OT

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia20170354–26+2834
2, PlayoffsHC Norilsk22152557–47+1032
7, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk21123646–32+1427
8, PlayoffsKhimik20114569–47+2226
9, PlayoffsKaluga20114543–34+926

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
  • BarsHC Norilskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →