NHL · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)
Dallas Stars — Pittsburgh Penguins
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Dallas Stars are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 55%.
Why
- Dallas Stars are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.4.
Facts
- League table: Dallas Stars — No. 11, 19 pts; Pittsburgh Penguins — No. 27, 12 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Pittsburgh Penguins: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Dallas Stars 3 wins, Pittsburgh Penguins 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Dallas Stars — Pittsburgh Penguins | 3.1–2.4 | |
| Dallas Stars to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 64% | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 36% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 55% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Dallas Stars
- Dallas Stars goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.11away · Washington Capitals6:5
- 01.11Columbus Blue Jackets3:1
- 30.10Montreal Canadiens2:5
- 28.10New Jersey Devils1:5
- 26.10New York Islanders6:3
- 04.11Vegas Golden Knights2:3
- 01.11away · Montreal Canadiens4:5
- 30.10Utah Mammoth3:4 OT
- 25.10Nashville Predators3:2 OT
- 23.10Florida Panthers4:0
Head to head
- 11.10.2026Pittsburgh Penguins — Dallas Stars2:1 SO
- 29.03.2026Pittsburgh Penguins — Dallas Stars3:6
- 08.12.2025Dallas Stars — Pittsburgh Penguins3:2 SO
- 05.04.2025Dallas Stars — Pittsburgh Penguins3:5
- 12.11.2024Pittsburgh Penguins — Dallas Stars1:7
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Colorado Avalanche | 16 | 9 | +13 | 19 |
| 11, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Dallas Stars | 15 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Ottawa Senators | 16 | 9 | +1 | 19 |
| 26 | Winnipeg Jets | 16 | 5 | -19 | 13 |
| 27 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 15 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 28 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 13 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
NHL on the same day
- Tampa Bay LightningBuffalo Sabrespreliminary66341The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 5:26.1
- St. Louis BluesEdmonton Oilerspreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:56.2
- Vancouver CanucksChicago Blackhawkspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:26.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →