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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)

Ilves — Assat

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Model prediction for 24 November

Ilves51%
Draw in regulation22%
Assat27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Ilves are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.7 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 38%.

Why

  • Ilves are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.0.

Facts

  • League table: Ilves — No. 2, 37 pts; Assat — No. 6, 34 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Ilves 2 wins, Assat 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ilves — Assat2.7–2.0
Ilves to win (incl. OT and shootout)64%
Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout)36%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)38%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)62%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Ilves
  • Ilves goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Ilves

  • 31.10KalPa1:0
  • 30.10away · Tappara2:1 SO
  • 28.10away · IFK Helsinki1:2
  • 24.10Jukurit1:2 SO
  • 23.10away · Jukurit3:0

Assat

  • 31.10away · Vaasan Sport2:1
  • 30.10IFK Helsinki3:2
  • 28.10away · KooKoo3:5
  • 24.10away · JYP1:4
  • 21.10away · Tappara0:3

Head to head

  • 04.09.2026Assat — Ilves5:1
  • 17.01.2026Ilves — Assat5:1
  • 16.01.2026Assat — Ilves2:1
  • 05.12.2025Assat — Ilves3:4 SO
  • 26.09.2025Ilves — Assat2:3

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLukko191131453–36+1740
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJukurit20941649–40+936
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa18931552–38+1434
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAssat201012746–48-234
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKarpat20744553–52+133

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • SaiPaLukkopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.9
  • Vaasan SportKiekko-Espoopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →