PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)

SaiPa — Lukko

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 24 November

SaiPa40%
Draw in regulation23%
Lukko38%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: SaiPa 51%, Lukko 49% including overtime.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: SaiPa — No. 5, 34 pts; Lukko — No. 1, 40 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Lukko: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: SaiPa 3 wins, Lukko 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: SaiPa — Lukko2.5–2.4
SaiPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap SaiPa
  • SaiPa goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

SaiPa

  • 30.10JYP3:6
  • 28.10away · Pelicans0:5
  • 24.10away · Vaasan Sport3:1
  • 23.10away · Vaasan Sport5:3
  • 20.10Karpat2:1 SO

Lukko

  • 30.10KooKoo3:1
  • 28.10away · Jukurit4:3 SO
  • 24.10away · TPS Turku3:1
  • 23.10TPS Turku4:1
  • 20.10IFK Helsinki3:2 SO

Head to head

  • 07.01.2026Lukko — SaiPa3:4
  • 19.12.2025SaiPa — Lukko5:2
  • 15.11.2025SaiPa — Lukko4:5
  • 18.10.2025Lukko — SaiPa4:2
  • 21.04.2025SaiPa — Lukko2:1 OT

Full record: 18 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLukko191131453–36+1740
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIlves201031652–39+1337
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsJYP171021459–48+1135
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa18931552–38+1434
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAssat201012746–48-234

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • IlvesAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • Vaasan SportKiekko-Espoopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →