KHL · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3)
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Sochi
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 16 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are clear favourites: 76% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.
Why
- Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 1.6.
Facts
- League table: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — No. 3, 30 pts; Sochi — No. 21, 14 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 5 wins, Sochi 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Sochi | 3.0–1.6 | |
| Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 76% | |
| Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 24% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 35% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 65% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
- Lokomotiv Yaroslavl goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.11Lada0:1
- 29.10Sochi6:2
- 25.10Cherepovets1:0
- 23.10Dynamo Moscow2:1 OT
- 20.10Niznekamsk0:1
- 03.11Niznekamsk1:2
- 01.11Avangard Omsk2:1 OT
- 29.10away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:6
- 27.10away · Salavat Ufa2:1
- 25.10away · Lada4:3
Head to head
- 29.10.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Sochi6:2
- 17.10.2026Sochi — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl3:6
- 04.03.2026Sochi — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:3
- 14.02.2026Sochi — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2 OT
- 01.02.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Sochi3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | CSKA Moscow | 22 | 17 | +31 | 34 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 21 | 15 | +19 | 30 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Shanghai | 21 | 14 | +13 | 30 |
| 20 | Novosibirsk | 23 | 8 | -17 | 19 |
| 21 | Sochi | 22 | 7 | -37 | 14 |
| 22 | Lada | 22 | 4 | -38 | 13 |
KHL on the same day
- Salavat UfaVladivostokpreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
- CSKA MoscowKhabarovskpreliminary65351The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →