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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)

Lulea — Malmo

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Model prediction for 24 November

Lulea38%
Draw in regulation23%
Malmo39%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Lulea 49%, Malmo 51% including overtime.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: Lulea — No. 7, 20 pts; Malmo — No. 4, 25 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Malmo: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Lulea 3 wins, Malmo 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lulea — Malmo2.4–2.4
Lulea to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Malmo to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lulea
  • Lulea goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lulea

  • 31.10away · Timra3:2 SO
  • 29.10IF Bjorkloven4:0
  • 24.10Djurgarden2:3 OT
  • 22.10away · Vaxjo1:2
  • 17.10HV 715:2

Malmo

  • 31.10HV 713:2 OT
  • 29.10away · Rogle3:0
  • 27.10Linkoping8:2
  • 24.10Timra1:2
  • 22.10away · IF Bjorkloven4:2

Head to head

  • 08.10.2026Lulea — Malmo2:3
  • 29.01.2026Lulea — Malmo5:3
  • 20.12.2025Malmo — Lulea4:6
  • 01.11.2025Malmo — Lulea3:1
  • 13.09.2025Lulea — Malmo5:0

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda16920555–39+1631
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsMalmo14623345–33+1225
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle15621639–36+323
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsOrebro14612533–41-822
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea14513536–37-120
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsDjurgarden15432633–41-820

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • OrebroFrolundapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →