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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)

Orebro — Frolunda

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Model prediction for 24 November

Orebro31%
Draw in regulation22%
Frolunda47%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Frolunda are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

  • Frolunda are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.3.

Facts

  • League table: Orebro — No. 6, 22 pts; Frolunda — No. 3, 31 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Orebro 3 wins, Frolunda 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Orebro — Frolunda2.3–2.8
Orebro to win (incl. OT and shootout)41%
Frolunda to win (incl. OT and shootout)59%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Orebro
  • Orebro goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Orebro

  • 31.10Rogle3:2 OT
  • 29.10Frolunda3:2
  • 24.10away · Linkoping4:6
  • 22.10Brynas3:2
  • 17.10away · Rogle2:1

Frolunda

  • 31.10Linkoping4:1
  • 29.10away · Orebro2:3
  • 27.10Rogle4:5
  • 24.10away · HV 716:2
  • 22.10away · Rogle1:4

Head to head

  • 29.10.2026Orebro — Frolunda3:2
  • 19.02.2026Orebro — Frolunda5:4 OT
  • 24.01.2026Frolunda — Orebro4:5
  • 13.11.2025Frolunda — Orebro3:2
  • 18.09.2025Orebro — Frolunda1:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsSkelleftea14912252–31+2131
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda16920555–39+1631
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsMalmo14623345–33+1225
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle15621639–36+323
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsOrebro14612533–41-822
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea14513536–37-120

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • LuleaMalmopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 2:34.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →