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KHL · Wednesday, 11 November, (UTC+3)

SKA St. Petersburg — Dynamo Moscow

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Model prediction for 11 November

SKA St. Petersburg36%
Draw in regulation22%
Dynamo Moscow41%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Dynamo Moscow are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.6.

Facts

  • League table: SKA St. Petersburg — No. 17, 21 pts; Dynamo Moscow — No. 13, 23 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: SKA St. Petersburg 3 wins, Dynamo Moscow 2.
  • Days of rest before the match: SKA St. Petersburg 7, Dynamo Moscow 10.

Probabilities

Expected goals: SKA St. Petersburg — Dynamo Moscow2.4–2.6
SKA St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Dynamo Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap SKA St. Petersburg
  • SKA St. Petersburg goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

SKA St. Petersburg

  • 04.11away · Vladivostok0:4
  • 02.11away · Bars Kazan4:3
  • 27.10Nizhny Novgorod3:4
  • 25.10CSKA Moscow1:3
  • 22.10Novosibirsk6:3

Dynamo Moscow

  • 01.11away · Dinamo Minsk4:0
  • 28.10Khabarovsk2:1
  • 26.10Avangard Omsk2:3 OT
  • 23.10away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2 OT
  • 20.10Novosibirsk2:3 SO

Head to head

  • 11.10.2026Dynamo Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg4:3 OT
  • 07.09.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Dynamo Moscow5:3
  • 07.03.2026Dynamo Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg1:2 OT
  • 26.02.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Dynamo Moscow1:4
  • 08.11.2025Dynamo Moscow — SKA St. Petersburg2:3

Full record: 88 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceVladivostok22103956–60-423
13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDynamo Moscow24951050–62-1223
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg21102957–53+422
16, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk2286851–66-1522
17SKA St. Petersburg211011062–65-321
18Salavat Ufa221011161–67-621

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

KHL on the same day

  • CSKA MoscowNizhny Novgorodpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • SochiLadapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →