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Tennis: ATP, Tokyo, qualifying, hard · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK

Vallejo D. — Faria J.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Vallejo D.37%
Faria J.63%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Faria J. to win (63%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 63% fails in about 37 matches out of 100 on average.

Faria J. are clear favourites: 63% against 37% for the opponent.

Over 24.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Vallejo D. 1533, Faria J. 1624.

Probabilities

Games over 24.551%
Games under 24.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Vallejo D. games
  • Faria J. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Vallejo D.

  • 28.09Daniel T.2:0
  • 26.09Wong C.1:2
  • 24.09Cui J.2:1

Faria J.

  • 28.09Mochizuki S.2:0
  • 25.09Gaston H.1:2
  • 24.09Atmane T.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Faria J.Fery A.1 October · ATP · Tokyo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • Vallejo D.Jodar R.1 October · ATP · Tokyo
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • Tsitsipas S.Hijikata R.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.23.5
  • Machac T.Gea A.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • Munar J.Kovacevic A.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.24.5
  • Fils A.Majchrzak K.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • Trungelliti M.Molcan A.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • Van De Zandschulp B.Cui J.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Mannarino A.Carreno-Busta P.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • Hurkacz H.Davidovich Fokina A.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.25.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →