Tennis: ATP, Beijing, qualifying, hard · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK

Machac T. — Gea A.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Machac T.57%
Gea A.43%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Machac T. to win (57%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.

Machac T. are slightly stronger: 57% against 43%.

Over 24.5 games — 52%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Machac T. 1717, Gea A. 1662.

Probabilities

Games over 24.552%
Games under 24.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Machac T. games
  • Gea A. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Machac T.

  • 28.09Hanfmann Y.2:1

Gea A.

  • 28.09Te R.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Zhang Z.Gea A.30 September · ATP · Beijing
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • Zhang Z.Machac T.7 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.25.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →