UFC (mixed martial arts) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Aleksandre Topuria — Santiago Lunabeta
☆ Save boutModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Santiago Luna are clear favourites: 61% against 39% for the opponent.
Why
- Elo rating: Aleksandre Topuria 1584, Santiago Luna 1530.
Probabilities
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The chance of each fighter’s method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), whether the bout goes the distance, the fighters’ ratings, age and reach and how the estimate moved before the bout.
- Method of victory: KO/TKO, submission, decision
- KO/TKO by each fighter
- Goes the distance
- Fighters’ Elo, age and reach
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Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
UFC on the same day
- Amir AlbaziAlessandro Costapreliminary40602The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Asu AlmabayevKyoji Horiguchipreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Jake MatthewsTahir Abdullayevpreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Shamil GazievTallison Teixeirapreliminary33672The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Jared CannonierIkram Aliskerovpreliminary18822The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Dan HookerBrian Ortegapreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Aljamain SterlingKevin Vallejospreliminary35652The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Jiri ProchazkaNavajo Stirlingpreliminary25752The model's most likely outcome: 2—
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 bouts out of 100. How to read probabilities →