UFC (mixed martial arts) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Amir Albazi — Alessandro Costabeta
☆ Save boutModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Alessandro Costa are clear favourites: 60% against 40% for the opponent.
Why
- Elo rating: Amir Albazi 1543, Alessandro Costa 1562.
Probabilities
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The chance of each fighter’s method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), whether the bout goes the distance, the fighters’ ratings, age and reach and how the estimate moved before the bout.
- Method of victory: KO/TKO, submission, decision
- KO/TKO by each fighter
- Goes the distance
- Fighters’ Elo, age and reach
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Form
- 08.02Kyoji Horiguchi0:1
- 03.11Brandon Moreno0:1
- 04.06Kai Kara-France1:0
- 18.12Alessandro Costa1:0
- 21.08Francisco Figueiredo1:0
- 12.07Cody Durden1:0
- 07.06Matt Schnell1:0
- 05.04Stewart Nicoll1:0
- 14.09Alden Coria0:1
- 05.05Kevin Borjas1:0
Head to head
- 18.12.2022Amir Albazi — Alessandro Costa1:0
UFC on the same day
- Asu AlmabayevKyoji Horiguchipreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Aleksandre TopuriaSantiago Lunapreliminary39612The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Jake MatthewsTahir Abdullayevpreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Shamil GazievTallison Teixeirapreliminary33672The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Jared CannonierIkram Aliskerovpreliminary18822The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Dan HookerBrian Ortegapreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 1—
- Aljamain SterlingKevin Vallejospreliminary35652The model's most likely outcome: 2—
- Jiri ProchazkaNavajo Stirlingpreliminary25752The model's most likely outcome: 2—
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 bouts out of 100. How to read probabilities →