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NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Bauru — Caxias do Sul

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Model prediction for 21 November

Bauru78%
Caxias do Sul22%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Bauru are clear favourites: 78% against 22% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 77:67 — 144 points in total.

Over 143.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Bauru −0.1, Caxias do Sul −6.7 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Bauru — No. 11, 2–3; Caxias do Sul — No. 17, 0–5.
  • Bauru: 3 defeats in a row; Caxias do Sul: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Bauru 5 wins, Caxias do Sul 0.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Bauru — Caxias do Sul77.0–67.2
Total over 143.5 (incl. OT)51%
Total under 143.5 (incl. OT)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Bauru points
  • Caxias do Sul points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Bauru

  • 04.11Cruzeiro74:78
  • 31.10away · Paulistano75:83
  • 24.10Mogi61:79
  • 22.10Sao Jose83:68
  • 18.10away · Flamengo82:81

Caxias do Sul

  • 02.11away · Pinheiros53:91
  • 31.10away · Flamengo59:77
  • 29.10away · Botafogo82:84
  • 21.10Minas66:78
  • 18.10Cruzeiro61:72

Head to head

  • 20.01.2026Caxias do Sul — Bauru73:74
  • 31.10.2025Bauru — Caxias do Sul75:64
  • 30.03.2025Bauru — Caxias do Sul84:67
  • 04.12.2024Caxias do Sul — Bauru66:71
  • 09.03.2024Caxias do Sul — Bauru75:79

Full record: 14 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
10, PlayoffsFranca523.4003
11, PlayoffsBauru523.4003
12, PlayoffsBotafogo523.4003
16, PlayoffsPato413.2503.5
17Caxias do Sul505.0005
18, RelegationCearense303.0004

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

NBB on the same day

  • CearenseBotafogopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —161.9
  • FrancaUniao Corinthianspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —155.0
  • OsascoCruzeiropreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —164.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →