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NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Cearense — Botafogo

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Model prediction for 21 November

Cearense28%
Botafogo72%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Botafogo are clear favourites: 72% against 28% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 77:85 — 162 points in total.

Over 161.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Cearense −17.4, Botafogo −6.7 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Cearense — No. 18, 0–3; Botafogo — No. 12, 2–3.
  • Cearense: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Cearense 4 wins, Botafogo 1.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Cearense — Botafogo77.2–84.7
Total over 161.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 161.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Cearense points
  • Botafogo points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Cearense

  • 03.11away · Sao Jose53:96
  • 23.10Pinheiros63:98
  • 21.10Osasco69:93
  • 17.04away · Cruzeiro77:86
  • 15.04away · Minas56:87

Botafogo

  • 02.11away · Brasilia77:76
  • 31.10Uniao Corinthians80:87
  • 29.10Caxias do Sul84:82
  • 25.10away · Pato88:89
  • 21.10away · Flamengo71:81

Head to head

  • 17.01.2026Cearense — Botafogo86:82
  • 21.10.2025Botafogo — Cearense80:84
  • 21.01.2025Botafogo — Cearense74:83
  • 28.10.2024Cearense — Botafogo52:77
  • 15.02.2024Cearense — Botafogo84:75

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
11, PlayoffsBauru523.4003
12, PlayoffsBotafogo523.4003
13, PlayoffsCorinthians Paulista312.3333
17Caxias do Sul505.0005
18, RelegationCearense303.0004

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

NBB on the same day

  • BauruCaxias do Sulpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —144.2
  • FrancaUniao Corinthianspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —155.0
  • OsascoCruzeiropreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —164.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →