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NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Friday, 13 November, (UTC+3)

Caxias do Sul — Pato

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Model prediction for 13 November

Caxias do Sul62%
Pato38%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Caxias do Sul are clear favourites: 62% against 38% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 73:69 — 141 point in total.

Over 140.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Caxias do Sul −6.8, Pato −7.5 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Caxias do Sul — No. 17, 0–5; Pato — No. 16, 1–3.
  • Caxias do Sul: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Caxias do Sul 3 wins, Pato 2.
  • Days of rest before the match: Caxias do Sul 11, Pato 14.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Caxias do Sul — Pato72.5–68.6
Total over 140.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 140.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Caxias do Sul points
  • Pato points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Caxias do Sul

  • 02.11away · Pinheiros53:91
  • 31.10away · Flamengo59:77
  • 29.10away · Botafogo82:84
  • 21.10Minas66:78
  • 18.10Cruzeiro61:72

Pato

  • 30.10away · Cruzeiro68:76
  • 28.10away · Minas65:86
  • 25.10Botafogo89:88
  • 22.10Paulistano74:80
  • 18.04away · Paulistano71:92

Head to head

  • 10.01.2026Pato — Caxias do Sul85:91 OT
  • 22.10.2025Caxias do Sul — Pato70:63
  • 21.01.2025Pato — Caxias do Sul78:65
  • 01.11.2024Caxias do Sul — Pato81:80
  • 13.04.2024Caxias do Sul — Pato68:85

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
15, PlayoffsSao Jose413.2503.5
16, PlayoffsPato413.2503.5
17Caxias do Sul505.0005
18, RelegationCearense303.0004

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

NBB on the same day

  • BotafogoFrancapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —159.3
  • Corinthians PaulistaPinheirospreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —160.6
  • OsascoMogipreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —153.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →