Prediction accuracy: basketball
What is checked: who wins the game, overtime included. An honest probability means outcomes at 70% happen about 70% of the time.
Check on history
The NBA players’ ratings were refitted every week on past games only; every game counted the players available before it. The model’s parameters are those it predicts with now. That is how 2,643 matches from 22 October 2024 to 14 June 2026 were checked.
| Model estimate | Estimates | Average | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 99 | 6.8% | 6.1% |
| 10–20% | 392 | 15.6% | 14.8% |
| 20–30% | 574 | 25.1% | 24.0% |
| 30–40% | 746 | 35.2% | 35.8% |
| 40–50% | 832 | 45.2% | 42.8% |
| 50–60% | 832 | 54.8% | 57.2% |
| 60–70% | 746 | 64.8% | 64.2% |
| 70–80% | 574 | 74.9% | 76.0% |
| 80–90% | 392 | 84.4% | 85.2% |
| 90–100% | 99 | 93.2% | 93.9% |
How to read probabilities and calibration →
Only the model's favourite
| Confidence from | Share of matches | Estimate | Came true |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 69% | 73.8% | 74.1% |
| 70% | 40% | 80.1% | 81.0% |
| 80% | 19% | 86.2% | 87.0% |
| 90% | 4% | 93.2% | 93.9% |
Overall the model's most likely outcome came true in 69% of matches, with the favourite estimated at 68% on average. When the two are close, the model neither overstates nor understates its confidence.
Since launch
We store the last estimate before each match and never change it afterwards. Since 6 October 2026 the most likely outcome came true in 55 of 82 matches with an expected share of 67%. The sample is still small: conclusions need several hundred matches.
| Competition | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| LNBP | 22 | 17 | 69% |
| EuroLeague | 17 | 10 | 64% |
| Liga Nacional | 15 | 7 | 64% |
| EuroCup | 12 | 8 | 63% |
| Liga ACB | 9 | 7 | 68% |
| VTB United League | 7 | 6 | 79% |
Latest 12 matches
- Obera TCRacing de Chivilcoy14 October · Liga Nacional70301The most likely outcome did not happen: 178:84Final score 78:84. Model's score: —.161.3
- ValenciaOlympiacos13 October · EuroLeague52481The most likely outcome did not happen: 197:102OTFinal score 97:102 in overtime. Model's score: —.184.0
- Partizan Mozzart BetPanathinaikos13 October · EuroLeague39612The most likely outcome came true: 255:72Final score 55:72. Model's score: —.166.3
- Olimpia MilanoReal Madrid13 October · EuroLeague36642The most likely outcome came true: 289:98Final score 89:98. Model's score: —.175.3
- BaskoniaDubai13 October · EuroLeague51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 179:93Final score 79:93. Model's score: —.178.0
- BarcelonaMaccabi Tel Aviv13 October · EuroLeague77231The most likely outcome came true: 190:87Final score 90:87. Model's score: —.178.8
- TrentoChemnitz13 October · EuroCup55451The most likely outcome did not happen: 180:88Final score 80:88. Model's score: —.157.9
- BC RomaBalkan13 October · EuroCup77231The most likely outcome came true: 177:72OTFinal score 77:72 in overtime. Model's score: —.172.1
- Lyon-VilleurbanneCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet13 October · EuroLeague39612The most likely outcome came true: 282:84Final score 82:84. Model's score: —.166.6
- FenerbahceZalgiris Kaunas13 October · EuroLeague58421The most likely outcome came true: 199:80Final score 99:80. Model's score: —.161.1
- NeptunasJL Bourg13 October · EuroCup34662The most likely outcome did not happen: 293:89Final score 93:89. Model's score: —.170.2
- LietkabelisPAOK13 October · EuroCup50502The most likely outcome did not happen: 295:86Final score 95:86. Model's score: —.162.1