EuroCup (basketball) · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Svyturio Arena
Neptunas — JL Bourg
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In short
Final score 93:89: the model's most likely outcome, JL Bourg to win (66% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 66% fails in about 34 matches out of 100 on average.
JL Bourg are clear favourites: 66% against 34% for the opponent.
The model expects a score around 82:88 — 170 points in total.
Over 169.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.
Why
- Team strength against the league average: Neptunas −7.7, JL Bourg +0.1 points in regulation.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Neptunas — JL Bourg | 82.4–87.8 | |
| Total over 169.5 (incl. OT) | 50% | |
| Total under 169.5 (incl. OT) | 50% |
223 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All handicaps
- All totals
- Neptunas points
- JL Bourg points
- Regulation 1X2
- Offence and defence strength
Form
- 07.10away · Chemnitz84:93
- 29.09Trento73:76
- 11.02Bahcesehir Kol.86:91
- 04.02away · Aris64:83
- 28.01Hapoel Jerusalem98:92
- 06.10Tofas82:89
- 30.09away · Basket Napoli76:84
- 28.04Besiktas73:71
- 22.04away · Besiktas72:60
- 08.04Turk Telekom94:78
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
Group C
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs | Basket Napoli | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | — |
| 2, Playoffs | Tofas | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | — |
| 3, Playoffs | Chemnitz | 2 | 1 | .667 | 0.5 |
| 4, Playoffs | Buducnost | 1 | 1 | .500 | 1 |
| 5 | Slask Wroclaw | 1 | 1 | .500 | 1 |
| 6 | Trento | 1 | 2 | .333 | 1.5 |
| 7 | Neptunas | 1 | 2 | .333 | 1.5 |
| 8 | JL Bourg | 0 | 3 | .000 | 2.5 |
Next matches
- BuducnostNeptunas20 October · EuroCup78221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —179.0
- JL BourgTrento21 October · EuroCup · preliminary73271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.1
EuroCup on the same day
- 82181The most likely outcome came true: 1100:88Final score 100:88. Model's score: —.169.3
- 50502The most likely outcome did not happen: 295:86Final score 95:86. Model's score: —.162.1
- 77231The most likely outcome came true: 177:72OTFinal score 77:72 in overtime. Model's score: —.172.1
- 55451The most likely outcome did not happen: 180:88Final score 80:88. Model's score: —.157.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →