Bundesliga: matchday 6 predictions
16–18 October · 9 matches · season 2026/27
Bundesliga matchday 6: 9 matches, 16–18 October. The model expects 3.3 goals per match on average. Its most likely outcome is a home win in 5 matches, an away win in 4. In matchday 5 the most likely outcome came true in 5 of 9 matches.
The round at a glance
- Biggest favourite · Most goals expectedBayern München — RB LeipzigBayern München 80% to win; most likely score 3:1; 4.4 goals on average; over 2.5: 82%
- Closest matchBorussia Mönchengladbach — Hoffenheim34% v 38%, draw 28%
- Possible upsetEintracht Frankfurt — 1. FC Köln1. FC Köln 22% to win: the best underdog chance of the round
- Top-of-the-table clashBayer Leverkusen — Freiburg4th v 1st in the table: 64% v 15%
What is at stake
Freiburg lead with 13 points from 5 matches; Borussia Dortmund are second, level on points. The leader’s game this round: Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg, 15% to win. Title chances by the season forecast: Freiburg 3%, Borussia Dortmund 14%.
In the relegation and relegation play-off places: Union Berlin, Hoffenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach; they are up to 4 points behind 15th place. A game at the bottom: Borussia Mönchengladbach — Hoffenheim. Most at risk by the season forecast: Borussia Mönchengladbach, 41% to go down.
The matches
Friday, 16 October
- 5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
Saturday, 17 October
- 4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 2026542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 2330472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- 4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.4
Sunday, 18 October
- 6421151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
- 3428382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
Probabilities: home win, draw, away win in 90 minutes; under the most likely outcome, its most likely score. The estimates are updated until kick-off.
Bundesliga: matches and table →Season forecast →Power rankings →