La Liga: matchday 9 predictions
16–19 October · 10 matches · season 2026/27
La Liga matchday 9: 10 matches, 16–19 October. The model expects 2.8 goals per match on average. Its most likely outcome is a home win in 5 matches, an away win in 3 and a draw in 2. In matchday 8 the most likely outcome came true in 6 of 9 matches.
The round at a glance
- Biggest favouriteReal Madrid — SevillaReal Madrid 81% to win; most likely score 2:0
- Closest matchGetafe — Rayo Vallecano35% v 33%, draw 32%
- Most goals expected · Top-of-the-table clashReal Betis — Barcelona3.5 goals on average; over 2.5: 67%; 3rd v 1st in the table
- Possible upsetOsasuna — Racing SantanderRacing Santander 24% to win: the best underdog chance of the round
What is at stake
Barcelona lead with 24 points from 8 matches; Atlético Madrid are second, 5 points behind. The leader’s game this round: Real Betis — Barcelona, 56% to win. Title chances by the season forecast: Barcelona 86%, Atlético Madrid 3%.
In the relegation zone: Elche, Valencia and Málaga; they are up to 2 points behind 17th place. Most at risk by the season forecast: Málaga, 61% to go down.
The matches
Friday, 16 October
- 3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
Saturday, 17 October
- 2527482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- 1825562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.5
- 383131XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
Sunday, 18 October
- 5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- 4828231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- 2529462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3
- 811361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
Monday, 19 October
- 353233XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.0
Probabilities: home win, draw, away win in 90 minutes; under the most likely outcome, its most likely score. The estimates are updated until kick-off.
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