La Liga, round 9 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Real Madrid — Sevilla
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Real Madrid are clear favourites: 81% against 6% for the opponent, draw 13%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Madrid are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Madrid — Sevilla What is xG? | 2.5–0.7 | |
| Real Madrid not to lose | 94% | |
| Sevilla not to lose | 19% | |
| No draw | 87% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Real Madrid
- Real Madrid goals
- Sevilla goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10Villarreal1:0
- 20.09away · Atlético Madrid1:2
- 15.09away · Elche3:2
- 12.09Rayo Vallecano4:1
- 08.09Inter2:1
- 12.10away · Levante3:3
- 19.09Barcelona1:3
- 16.09away · Deportivo A Coruña1:0
- 11.09Valencia1:0
- 06.09away · Espanyol1:1
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Sevilla — Real Madrid0:1
- 20.12.2025Real Madrid — Sevilla2:0
- 18.05.2025Sevilla — Real Madrid0:2
- 22.12.2024Real Madrid — Sevilla4:2
- 25.02.2024Real Madrid — Sevilla1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 4, Champions League | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
La Liga on the same day
- 5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- 4828231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- 2529462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →