English Premier League, round 9 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
AFC Bournemouth — Leeds United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
AFC Bournemouth are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 28%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AFC Bournemouth are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: AFC Bournemouth — No. 18, 3 pts; Leeds United — No. 7, 9 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: AFC Bournemouth 1 win, Leeds United 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AFC Bournemouth — Leeds United What is xG? | 1.6–1.4 | |
| AFC Bournemouth not to lose | 69% | |
| Leeds United not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AFC Bournemouth
- AFC Bournemouth goals
- Leeds United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Chelsea1:5
- 20.09Liverpool0:1
- 17.09away · Real Sociedad2:1
- 12.09Brentford2:2
- 08.09Lincoln City4:0
- 10.10away · Arsenal1:2
- 20.09Crystal Palace0:0
- 14.09Newcastle United4:1
- 09.09away · Chelsea3:6
- 05.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion1:1
Head to head
- 22.04.2026AFC Bournemouth — Leeds United2:2
- 27.09.2025Leeds United — AFC Bournemouth2:2
- 30.04.2023AFC Bournemouth — Leeds United4:1
- 05.11.2022Leeds United — AFC Bournemouth4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 18, Relegation | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
| 19, Relegation | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
Premier League on the same day
- ChelseaManchester Unitedpreliminary4926251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- BrentfordNottingham Forestpreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Coventry CitySunderlandpreliminary303239XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.8
- Hull CityIpswich Townpreliminary2931402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- Manchester CityBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary6522131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- Tottenham HotspurCrystal Palacepreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Aston VillaFulhampreliminary4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →