English Premier League, round 9 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Manchester City are clear favourites: 65% against 13% for the opponent, draw 22%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester City are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Manchester City — No. 1, 18 pts; Brighton & Hove Albion — No. 3, 13 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Manchester City: 5 wins in a row; Brighton & Hove Albion: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Manchester City 1 win, Brighton & Hove Albion 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion What is xG? | 2.2–1.1 | |
| Manchester City not to lose | 87% | |
| Brighton & Hove Albion not to lose | 35% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Manchester City
- Manchester City goals
- Brighton & Hove Albion goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Liverpool3:0
- 20.09Sunderland5:3
- 17.09Norwich City5:0
- 13.09away · Manchester United1:0
- 08.09away · FC Porto2:0
- 10.10away · Sunderland2:0
- 19.09Arsenal3:0
- 16.09away · Manchester United3:2
- 13.09away · Coventry City5:0
- 05.09Leeds United1:1
Head to head
- 07.01.2026Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion1:1
- 31.08.2025Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City2:1
- 15.03.2025Manchester City — Brighton & Hove Albion2:2
- 09.11.2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City2:1
- 25.04.2024Brighton & Hove Albion — Manchester City0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | +13 | 13 |
| 4, Champions League | Brentford | 6 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
Premier League on the same day
- ChelseaManchester Unitedpreliminary4926251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- AFC BournemouthLeeds Unitedpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- BrentfordNottingham Forestpreliminary4729241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Coventry CitySunderlandpreliminary303239XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.8
- Hull CityIpswich Townpreliminary2931402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- Tottenham HotspurCrystal Palacepreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Aston VillaFulhampreliminary4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →