Russian Premier League, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Akron Togliatti — Dinamo Moscow
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Dinamo Moscow are clear favourites: 55% against 17% for the opponent, draw 28%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Dinamo Moscow are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Akron Togliatti — No. 14, 8 pts; Dinamo Moscow — No. 2, 22 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
- Dinamo Moscow: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 4 meetings: Akron Togliatti 1 win, Dinamo Moscow 3.
- Days of rest before the match: Akron Togliatti 11, Dinamo Moscow 13.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Akron Togliatti — Dinamo Moscow What is xG? | 1.1–1.9 | |
| Akron Togliatti not to lose | 45% | |
| Dinamo Moscow not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Akron Togliatti
- Akron Togliatti goals
- Dinamo Moscow goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Lokomotiv Moscow1:1
- 09.10away · FC Rostov0:1
- 17.09FK Akhmat2:0
- 13.09away · FC Krasnodar1:1
- 06.09away · FC Orenburg2:2
- 11.10away · Rubin Kazan1:0
- 17.09away · FC Rostov3:0
- 12.09FC Orenburg1:0
- 06.09Spartak Moscow2:1
- 03.09FK Akhmat3:0
Head to head
- 13.04.2026Akron Togliatti — Dinamo Moscow2:3
- 08.11.2025Dinamo Moscow — Akron Togliatti1:2
- 18.05.2025Dinamo Moscow — Akron Togliatti2:1
- 03.08.2024Akron Togliatti — Dinamo Moscow0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Moscow | 10 | 6 | +9 | 22 |
| 2 | Dinamo Moscow | 10 | 7 | +7 | 22 |
| 3 | Zenit St. Petersburg | 10 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
| 15, Relegation | Rodina | 10 | 1 | -15 | 5 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- FakelRodinapreliminary4431251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Rubin KazanKrylya Sovetov Samarapreliminary4631231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- FC KrasnodarBaltikapreliminary5230171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →