UEFA Conference League, round 1 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · New Balance Arena
Atalanta — Pafos FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Atalanta are clear favourites: 81% against 6% for the opponent, draw 13%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atalanta are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Atalanta: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atalanta — Pafos FC What is xG? | 2.8–0.7 | |
| Atalanta not to lose | 94% | |
| Pafos FC not to lose | 19% | |
| No draw | 87% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atalanta
- Atalanta goals
- Pafos FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 28.01Slavia Prague4:1
- 21.01away · Chelsea0:1
- 10.12away · Juventus0:2
- 26.11Monaco2:2
- 05.11Villarreal1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Conference League on the same day
- 5324231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 771581The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.4
- 4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 1319682The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.1
- 3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 2024562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.8
- 1521642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →