Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta United — FC Cincinnati
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In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Atlanta United to win (43%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 43% fails in about 57 matches out of 100 on average.
Atlanta United are slightly stronger: 43% against 30%, draw 26%.
3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlanta United — FC Cincinnati What is xG? | 1.9–1.5 | |
| Atlanta United not to lose | 70% | |
| FC Cincinnati not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlanta United
- Atlanta United goals
- FC Cincinnati goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09New York City FC2:2
- 20.09away · Portland Timbers1:0
- 13.09away · DC United0:0
- 10.09Orlando City2:3
- 06.09away · Inter Miami CF2:2
- 27.09away · CF Montréal1:3
- 20.09away · Houston Dynamo FC2:2
- 13.09Charlotte FC3:3
- 10.09away · Philadelphia Union0:5
- 30.08away · Nashville SC0:4
Head to head
- 22.02.2026FC Cincinnati — Atlanta United2:0
- 26.05.2025Atlanta United — FC Cincinnati4:2
- 22.03.2025FC Cincinnati — Atlanta United2:2
- 16.05.2024FC Cincinnati — Atlanta United1:0
- 21.04.2024Atlanta United — FC Cincinnati1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | -15 | 37 |
| 16, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 17, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | LA Galaxy | 29 | 9 | -11 | 36 |
| 27 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | -5 | 29 |
| 28 | Atlanta United | 28 | 7 | -15 | 27 |
| 29 | CF Montréal | 28 | 6 | -21 | 24 |
Next matches
- CF MontréalAtlanta United15 October · MLS4427281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- FC CincinnatiNew England Revolution15 October · MLS4326311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.5
MLS on the same day
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 5723201The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- 4028311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 3827351The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.5
- 3728351The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 6620141The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.5
- 2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 3227402The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →