Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Subaru Park
Philadelphia Union — Real Salt Lake
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Philadelphia Union to win (66%), came true.
Philadelphia Union are clear favourites: 66% against 14% for the opponent, draw 20%.
3.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Philadelphia Union are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Philadelphia Union — Real Salt Lake What is xG? | 2.4–1.1 | |
| Philadelphia Union not to lose | 86% | |
| Real Salt Lake not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
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- Handicap Philadelphia Union
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- Real Salt Lake goals
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Form
- 27.09Orlando City4:2
- 20.09away · Sporting Kansas City4:3
- 14.09away · San Diego FC5:0
- 10.09FC Cincinnati5:0
- 06.09CF Montréal2:0
- 27.09New England Revolution3:0
- 24.09away · Seattle Sounders FC0:2
- 20.09Vancouver Whitecaps0:3
- 13.09New York City FC0:2
- 10.09away · Houston Dynamo FC1:2
Head to head
- 28.04.2024Philadelphia Union — Real Salt Lake1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | +13 | 42 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | +11 | 42 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Seattle Sounders FC | 28 | 11 | +3 | 41 |
| 21 | San Diego FC | 28 | 8 | -3 | 32 |
| 22 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
Next matches
- Chicago Fire FCPhiladelphia Union15 October · MLS3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- Real Salt LakeSan Jose Earthquakes15 October · MLS4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
MLS on the same day
- 4326301The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 5723201The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- 4028311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 3827351The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.5
- 3728351The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 3227402The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →