Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Q2 Stadium
Austin FC — Nashville SC
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:4Came true
In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Nashville SC to win (50%), came true.
Nashville SC are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nashville SC are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Austin FC — Nashville SC What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Austin FC not to lose | 50% | |
| Nashville SC not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Nashville SC goals
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Form
- 27.09San Diego FC3:3
- 20.09away · FC Dallas0:0
- 14.09away · Vancouver Whitecaps2:1
- 10.09Colorado Rapids1:1
- 06.09San Jose Earthquakes1:1
- 27.09Toronto FC2:0
- 20.09Chicago Fire FC3:0
- 13.09away · Inter Miami CF2:2
- 10.09away · Toronto FC1:2
- 05.09away · New York City FC0:0
Head to head
- 02.10.2025Austin FC — Nashville SC1:2
- 25.08.2024Nashville SC — Austin FC0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | +37 | 63 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | +31 | 51 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
| 24 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | -15 | 31 |
| 25 | Minnesota United | 28 | 7 | -9 | 30 |
Next matches
- Nashville SCSporting Kansas City15 October · MLS761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
- Los Angeles FCAustin FC15 October · MLS7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
MLS on the same day
- 4326301The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 5723201The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- 4028311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 3827351The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.5
- 3728351The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 6620141The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.5
- 3227402The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →