Brazilian Serie B, round 33 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estádio Antônio Accioly
Atlético-GO — Sport Recife
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético-GO to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.
Atlético-GO are clear favourites: 48% against 25% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético-GO 1 win, Sport Recife 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético-GO — Sport Recife What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| Atlético-GO not to lose | 75% | |
| Sport Recife not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético-GO
- Atlético-GO goals
- Sport Recife goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 08.10away · CRB1:3
- 03.10América-MG2:0
- 27.09away · Goiás1:0
- 19.09away · São Bernardo0:1
- 13.09Criciúma4:0
- 07.10São Bernardo2:1
- 02.10away · Athletic Club MG2:1
- 26.09away · Náutico1:3
- 19.09Juventude2:1
- 16.09away · CRB1:2
Head to head
- 19.06.2026Sport Recife — Atlético-GO1:1
- 11.11.2023Sport Recife — Atlético-GO0:0
- 15.07.2023Atlético-GO — Sport Recife3:1
- 01.11.2021Sport Recife — Atlético-GO2:0
- 08.07.2021Atlético-GO — Sport Recife1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Criciúma | 33 | 16 | +6 | 56 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Atlético-GO | 33 | 14 | +10 | 53 |
| 7 | CRB | 33 | 15 | +4 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | +10 | 51 |
| 9 | Operário-PR | 33 | 13 | -1 | 48 |
Next matches
- Ponte PretaAtlético-GO17 October · Brasileirao Serie B1019712The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.0
- Sport RecifeFortaleza17 October · Brasileirao Serie B3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 5726171The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.0
- 4129301The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →