Kazakhstan Premier League, round 29 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Atyrau — Irtysh Pavlodar
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atyrau are slightly stronger: 43% against 26%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 1.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 30%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Atyrau — No. 12, 26 pts; Irtysh Pavlodar — No. 13, 26 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atyrau — Irtysh Pavlodar What is xG? | 1.1–0.8 | |
| Atyrau not to lose | 74% | |
| Irtysh Pavlodar not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 30% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 70% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atyrau
- Atyrau goals
- Irtysh Pavlodar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10away · Zhenis2:1
- 17.09Ordabasy Shymkent0:3
- 12.09away · Kaisar Kyzylorda0:1
- 05.09away · FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk1:0
- 30.08FC Astana2:3
- 10.10FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk0:2
- 18.09away · FC Altai Oskemen2:1
- 13.09Okzhetpes Kokshetau2:1
- 05.09away · Zhetysu Taldykorgan0:1
- 30.08Aktobe2:1
Head to head
- 16.03.2026Irtysh Pavlodar — Atyrau1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk | 27 | 7 | -9 | 28 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 26 | 5 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 26 | 6 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | -14 | 24 |
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- FC Altai OskemenFC Yelimaypreliminary3028422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- AktobeKairat Almatypreliminary2428482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- FC AstanaKaisar Kyzylordapreliminary791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →