J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Best Denki Stadium
Avispa Fukuoka — Fagiano Okayama FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Missed
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 30% fails in about 70 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Avispa Fukuoka 35%, Fagiano Okayama FC 35%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Avispa Fukuoka: winless in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Avispa Fukuoka 1 win, Fagiano Okayama FC 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Avispa Fukuoka — Fagiano Okayama FC What is xG? | 1.0–1.0 | |
| Avispa Fukuoka not to lose | 65% | |
| Fagiano Okayama FC not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 32% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 68% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Avispa Fukuoka
- Avispa Fukuoka goals
- Fagiano Okayama FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:1
- 12.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse0:1
- 05.09Mito Hollyhock1:1
- 02.09Urawa Red Diamonds2:3
- 29.08away · Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
- 19.09Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
- 13.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds2:1
- 06.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:2
- 02.09away · JEF United Chiba2:1
- 29.08away · Nagoya Grampus1:2
Head to head
- 25.04.2026Fagiano Okayama FC — Avispa Fukuoka2:0
- 08.02.2026Avispa Fukuoka — Fagiano Okayama FC1:1
- 15.06.2025Fagiano Okayama FC — Avispa Fukuoka0:1
- 25.04.2025Avispa Fukuoka — Fagiano Okayama FC1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
Next matches
- Fagiano Okayama FCVissel Kobe18 October · J1 League353035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
- Machida ZelviaAvispa Fukuoka18 October · J1 League5228201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
J1 League on the same day
- 4127321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 4926241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 2828442The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →