J1 League (Japan), round 11 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Avispa Fukuoka — Gamba Osaka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Avispa Fukuoka are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Avispa Fukuoka — No. 17, 7 pts; Gamba Osaka — No. 18, 6 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Gamba Osaka: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Avispa Fukuoka 2 wins, Gamba Osaka 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Avispa Fukuoka — Gamba Osaka What is xG? | 1.4–1.2 | |
| Avispa Fukuoka not to lose | 69% | |
| Gamba Osaka not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Avispa Fukuoka
- Avispa Fukuoka goals
- Gamba Osaka goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 19.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:1
- 12.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse0:1
- 05.09Mito Hollyhock1:1
- 02.09Urawa Red Diamonds2:3
- 09.10away · Kashima Antlers0:2
- 20.09Vissel Kobe0:1
- 12.09FC Tokyo0:2
- 06.09away · JEF United Chiba0:2
- 02.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki2:2
Head to head
- 22.04.2026Gamba Osaka — Avispa Fukuoka1:2
- 21.03.2026Avispa Fukuoka — Gamba Osaka2:2
- 30.11.2025Avispa Fukuoka — Gamba Osaka1:0
- 22.02.2025Gamba Osaka — Avispa Fukuoka2:1
- 24.08.2024Gamba Osaka — Avispa Fukuoka2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
J1 League on the same day
- FC TokyoKashiwa Reysolpreliminary4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- Kawasaki FrontaleVissel Kobepreliminary3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Kyoto Sanga FCKashima Antlerspreliminary2626472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osakapreliminary3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Fagiano Okayama FCMito Hollyhockpreliminary5527191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- Shimizu S-PulseMachida Zelviapreliminary2628462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- V-Varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- Yokohama F.MarinosTokyo Verdypreliminary5029211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →