UEFA Nations League, round 3, League D, group 2 · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu
Azerbaijan — Liechtenstein
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Azerbaijan to win (84%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 84% fails in about 16 matches out of 100 on average.
Azerbaijan are clear favourites: 84% against 3% for the opponent, draw 13%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 24%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Azerbaijan 1331, Liechtenstein 883 — Azerbaijan clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Azerbaijan — Liechtenstein What is xG? | 2.5–0.3 | |
| Azerbaijan not to lose | 97% | |
| Liechtenstein not to lose | 16% | |
| No draw | 87% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 24% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 76% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Azerbaijan
- Azerbaijan goals
- Liechtenstein goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09away · Lithuania1:1
- 23.09Tajikistan1:0
- 09.06San Marino2:1
- 05.06Malta0:2
- 30.03Sierra Leone1:1
- 27.09away · Malta0:2
- 24.09Lithuania0:2
- 07.06Cyprus0:2
- 04.06away · Andorra0:2
- 29.03away · Aruba1:4
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 2, Promotion to the league above | Lithuania | 3 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 3, Promotion to the league above | Liechtenstein | 2 | 0 | -2 | 1 |
Next matches
- AzerbaijanLithuania4 October · UEFA Nations League4230281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- LiechtensteinGibraltar5 October · International Friendlies283438XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:1.1.6
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 7117111The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.3.6
- 2027532The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
- 2627472The most likely outcome came true: 22:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 2526492The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2329482The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 722081The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 84% will not happen in roughly 16 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →