UEFA Nations League, round 3, League D, group 1 · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Ta'Qali National Stadium
Malta — Gibraltar
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Malta to win (72%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 72% fails in about 28 matches out of 100 on average.
Malta are clear favourites: 72% against 8% for the opponent, draw 20%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Malta 1273, Gibraltar 1006 — Malta clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Malta — Gibraltar What is xG? | 2.1–0.6 | |
| Malta not to lose | 92% | |
| Gibraltar not to lose | 28% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Malta
- Malta goals
- Gibraltar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09Liechtenstein2:0
- 24.09away · Andorra2:1
- 05.06away · Azerbaijan2:0
- 01.06away · Slovakia1:2
- 31.03away · Luxembourg0:3
- 27.09Andorra0:0
- 23.09Sao Tome and Principe0:0
- 06.06Cayman Islands4:1
- 03.06British Virgin Islands4:0
- 31.03away · Latvia0:1
Head to head
- 06.09.2023Malta — Gibraltar1:0
- 07.10.2020Malta — Gibraltar2:0
Table
Next matches
- MaltaAndorra4 October · UEFA Nations League5829131The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- LiechtensteinGibraltar5 October · International Friendlies283438XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:1.1.6
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 841331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 7117111The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.3.6
- 2027532The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
- 2627472The most likely outcome came true: 22:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 2526492The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2329482The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →