UEFA Nations League, round 3, League A, group 2 · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Allianz Arena
Germany — Serbia
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Germany to win (71%), came true.
Germany are clear favourites: 71% against 11% for the opponent, draw 17%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Germany 1884, Serbia 1697 — Germany clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Germany — Serbia What is xG? | 2.6–1.0 | |
| Germany not to lose | 89% | |
| Serbia not to lose | 29% | |
| No draw | 83% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
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Form
- 27.09Greece0:1
- 24.09away · Netherlands1:1
- 29.06Paraguay1:1
- 25.06away · Ecuador1:2
- 20.06Ivory Coast2:1
- 27.09Netherlands1:2
- 24.09Greece1:2
- 05.06away · Mexico1:5
- 31.05away · Cape Verde0:3
- 31.03Saudi Arabia2:1
Head to head
- 20.03.2019Germany — Serbia1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Quarter-finals | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 2, Quarter-finals | Greece | 4 | 2 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | Serbia | 4 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Next matches
- GreeceGermany4 October · UEFA Nations League2425512The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- NetherlandsSerbia4 October · UEFA Nations League7218101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 841331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2027532The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
- 2627472The most likely outcome came true: 22:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 2526492The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2329482The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 722081The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 71% will not happen in roughly 29 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →