UEFA Nations League, round 3, League A, group 4 · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Parken
Denmark — Portugal
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2:4Came true
In short
Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Portugal to win (47%), came true.
Portugal are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Denmark 1869, Portugal 2022 — Portugal clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Denmark — Portugal What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Denmark not to lose | 53% | |
| Portugal not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Portugal goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 27.09Wales2:0
- 24.09away · Norway2:3
- 03.06away · DR Congo0:0
- 31.03away · Czechia2:2
- 26.03North Macedonia4:0
Head to head
- 23.03.2025Portugal — Denmark5:2
- 20.03.2025Denmark — Portugal1:0
Table
Next matches
- WalesDenmark4 October · UEFA Nations League2027532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
- PortugalNorway4 October · UEFA Nations League5722201The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 841331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 7117111The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.3.6
- 2027532The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
- 1423632The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 2526492The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2329482The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 722081The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →