UEFA Nations League, round 3, League A, group 4 · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Cardiff City Stadium
Wales — Norway
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In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Norway to win (63%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 63% fails in about 37 matches out of 100 on average.
Norway are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Wales 1669, Norway 1937 — Norway clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wales — Norway What is xG? | 0.8–2.0 | |
| Wales not to lose | 37% | |
| Norway not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Wales
- Wales goals
- Norway goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09away · Denmark0:2
- 24.09away · Portugal0:1
- 06.06away · Romania1:2
- 02.06Ghana1:1
- 31.03Northern Ireland1:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
Next matches
- WalesDenmark4 October · UEFA Nations League2027532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
- PortugalNorway4 October · UEFA Nations League5722201The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 841331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 7117111The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.3.6
- 2027532The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
- 2627472The most likely outcome came true: 22:4Final score 2:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 2526492The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2329482The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 722081The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →