Russian Premier League, round 13 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Baltika — Akron Togliatti
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Baltika are clear favourites: 59% against 15% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Baltika are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Baltika — No. 6, 12 pts; Akron Togliatti — No. 14, 8 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Baltika: winless in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: Baltika 2 wins, Akron Togliatti 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Baltika — Akron Togliatti What is xG? | 1.7–0.8 | |
| Baltika not to lose | 85% | |
| Akron Togliatti not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Baltika
- Baltika goals
- Akron Togliatti goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · FK Akhmat0:0
- 16.09Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 12.09away · Fakel2:2
- 06.09Lokomotiv Moscow0:1
- 02.09Krylya Sovetov Samara0:0
- 13.10away · Lokomotiv Moscow1:1
- 09.10away · FC Rostov0:1
- 17.09FK Akhmat2:0
- 13.09away · FC Krasnodar1:1
- 06.09away · FC Orenburg2:2
Head to head
- 27.04.2026Baltika — Akron Togliatti0:1
- 01.10.2025Baltika — Akron Togliatti3:0
- 31.08.2025Akron Togliatti — Baltika0:2
- 29.07.2025Akron Togliatti — Baltika2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 6 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 10 | 2 | +1 | 12 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
| 15, Relegation | Rodina | 10 | 1 | -15 | 5 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- FC OrenburgCSKA Moscowpreliminary2731422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- Dynamo MakhachkalaFC Rostovpreliminary4433231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- Lokomotiv MoscowSpartak Moscowpreliminary383230XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →