Russian Premier League, round 13 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Lokomotiv Moscow — Spartak Moscow
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lokomotiv Moscow are slightly stronger: 38% against 30%, draw 32%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Spartak Moscow are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Lokomotiv Moscow — No. 13, 10 pts; Spartak Moscow — No. 5, 20 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Lokomotiv Moscow 1 win, Spartak Moscow 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lokomotiv Moscow — Spartak Moscow What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Lokomotiv Moscow not to lose | 70% | |
| Spartak Moscow not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lokomotiv Moscow
- Lokomotiv Moscow goals
- Spartak Moscow goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10Akron Togliatti1:1
- 10.10away · Fakel5:0
- 16.09Krylya Sovetov Samara1:1
- 12.09away · Zenit St. Petersburg1:2
- 06.09away · Baltika1:0
- 10.10away · Krylya Sovetov Samara1:1
- 16.09Fakel1:0
- 13.09FC Rostov3:0
- 06.09away · Dinamo Moscow1:2
- 02.09Rodina3:1
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Spartak Moscow — Lokomotiv Moscow2:1
- 26.11.2025Lokomotiv Moscow — Spartak Moscow2:3
- 06.11.2025Spartak Moscow — Lokomotiv Moscow3:1
- 09.08.2025Lokomotiv Moscow — Spartak Moscow4:2
- 23.11.2024Spartak Moscow — Lokomotiv Moscow5:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 6 | Baltika | 10 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- FC OrenburgCSKA Moscowpreliminary2731422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
- Dynamo MakhachkalaFC Rostovpreliminary4433231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- BaltikaAkron Togliattipreliminary5926151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →