Bundesliga, round 8 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 57% against 19% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 73%, both teams to score — 71%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayer Leverkusen are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Bayer Leverkusen — No. 4, 10 pts; VfB Stuttgart — No. 11, 6 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 1 win, VfB Stuttgart 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart What is xG? | 2.3–1.4 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen not to lose | 81% | |
| VfB Stuttgart not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 29% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 73% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 27% |
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- Handicap Bayer Leverkusen
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Form
- 10.10away · Mainz 054:3
- 20.09RB Leipzig2:0
- 16.09NK Celje2:0
- 12.09away · Augsburg2:2
- 05.09Union Berlin4:0
- 10.10away · Paderborn2:0
- 19.09Borussia Dortmund0:1
- 12.09away · Hoffenheim1:2
- 09.09Viking3:1
- 04.091. FC Köln4:1
Head to head
- 09.05.2026VfB Stuttgart — Bayer Leverkusen3:1
- 10.01.2026Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart1:4
- 16.03.2025VfB Stuttgart — Bayer Leverkusen3:4
- 01.11.2024Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart0:0
- 27.04.2024Bayer Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 4, Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | +6 | 10 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | +10 | 9 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- AugsburgFreiburgpreliminary2930412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- Borussia MönchengladbachPaderbornpreliminary4529261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- Schalke 04RB Leipzigpreliminary2228502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.3
- Werder BremenHoffenheimpreliminary2929422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmundpreliminary821261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →