PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

UEFA Nations League, round 4, League C, group 1 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Illovszky Rudolf Stadion

Belarus — Finland

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

1:0Missed
Belarus21%
Draw29%
Finland50%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Finland to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.

Finland are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Belarus 1515, Finland 1552 — Finland rated higher.
  • Belarus: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Belarus — Finland What is xG?0.9–1.4
Belarus not to lose50%
Finland not to lose79%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes45%
Both teams to score: no55%
Total over 2.540%
Total under 2.560%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Belarus
  • Belarus goals
  • Finland goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Belarus

  • 03.10San Marino4:0
  • 29.09away · Finland0:0
  • 26.09away · Albania0:2
  • 09.06Burkina Faso2:2
  • 05.06Syria4:1

Finland

  • 03.10Albania2:1
  • 29.09Belarus0:0
  • 26.09away · San Marino7:0
  • 05.06away · Hungary1:2
  • 31.05away · Germany0:4

Head to head

  • 29.09.2026Finland — Belarus0:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveAlbania43018–3+59
2, Promotion play-offsFinland42119–2+77
3Belarus42115–2+37
4San Marino40041–16-150

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • KazakhstanFaroe Islands
    XThe most likely outcome came true: XFinal score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
  • CroatiaSpain
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
  • EnglandCzechia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
  • ScotlandSlovenia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
  • SwitzerlandNorth Macedonia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
  • AlbaniaSan Marino
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
  • MoldovaSlovakia
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
  • EstoniaIceland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →