UEFA Nations League, round 4, League C, group 4 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · A. Le Coq Arena
Estonia — Iceland
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Iceland to win (63%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 63% fails in about 37 matches out of 100 on average.
Iceland are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Estonia 1400, Iceland 1603 — Iceland clearly rated higher.
- Estonia: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Estonia — Iceland What is xG? | 0.8–1.8 | |
| Estonia not to lose | 37% | |
| Iceland not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Estonia
- Estonia goals
- Iceland goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 03.10Luxembourg1:0
- 29.09away · Bulgaria0:0
- 26.09away · Iceland1:1
- 09.06Lithuania1:0
- 06.06Faroe Islands1:0
- 03.10Bulgaria3:0
- 29.09away · Luxembourg3:0
- 26.09Estonia1:1
- 10.06away · Argentina0:3
- 31.05away · Japan0:1
Head to head
- 26.09.2026Iceland — Estonia1:1
- 08.01.2023Iceland — Estonia1:1
- 15.01.2019Estonia — Iceland0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Iceland | 4 | 2 | +6 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Estonia | 4 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Bulgaria | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Luxembourg | 4 | 1 | -5 | 3 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 383131XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.1
- 918742The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:3.3.2
- 831241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
- 4530251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 841241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
- 95401The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
- 2129502The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- 920712The most likely outcome came true: 20:4Final score 0:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →