EFL Championship, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Cardiff City — Birmingham City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Cardiff City 36%, Birmingham City 35%, draw 28%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Birmingham City are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Cardiff City — No. 18, 10 pts; Birmingham City — No. 4, 17 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Birmingham City: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Cardiff City 4 wins, Birmingham City 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cardiff City — Birmingham City What is xG? | 1.6–1.6 | |
| Cardiff City not to lose | 65% | |
| Birmingham City not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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- Handicap Cardiff City
- Cardiff City goals
- Birmingham City goals
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Form
- 13.10Watford5:1
- 10.10away · Blackburn Rovers1:2
- 19.09Charlton Athletic3:1
- 12.09away · Bolton Wanderers0:1
- 08.09Stoke City1:1
- 13.10Preston North End4:0
- 10.10away · West Bromwich Albion1:0
- 19.09Middlesbrough2:2
- 12.09away · Derby County2:1
- 09.09away · Norwich City1:2
Head to head
- 10.04.2024Birmingham City — Cardiff City0:1
- 13.12.2023Cardiff City — Birmingham City0:1
- 29.08.2023Birmingham City — Cardiff City1:3
- 14.02.2023Birmingham City — Cardiff City0:2
- 13.08.2022Cardiff City — Birmingham City1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 5 | +2 | 17 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
Championship on the same day
- Charlton AthleticNorwich Citypreliminary2528462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- PortsmouthMillwallpreliminary4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Sheffield UnitedDerby Countypreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Blackburn RoversWrexhampreliminary373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.4
- Lincoln CityBurnleypreliminary373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.6
- Preston North EndWest Bromwich Albionpreliminary343037XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.6
- Queens Park RangersSwansea Citypreliminary3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- Stoke CityBristol Citypreliminary353035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →