Liga MX (Mexico), round 11 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Banorte
CF América — Monterrey
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, CF América to win (56%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.
CF América are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings CF América are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: CF América 2 wins, Monterrey 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: CF América — Monterrey What is xG? | 1.9–1.1 | |
| CF América not to lose | 81% | |
| Monterrey not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap CF América
- CF América goals
- Monterrey goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 28.09away · Necaxa4:2
- 20.09Chivas2:2
- 13.09away · Cruz Azul3:4
- 30.08Puebla2:0
- 22.08away · FC Juárez2:1
- 26.09away · Atlante2:4
- 20.09Cruz Azul1:0
- 13.09Tigres0:0
- 31.08Atlético de San Luis1:3
- 22.08away · León0:2
Head to head
- 08.02.2026CF América — Monterrey1:0
- 30.11.2025CF América — Monterrey2:1
- 27.11.2025Monterrey — CF América2:0
- 21.09.2025Monterrey — CF América2:2
- 17.04.2025Monterrey — CF América1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Liguilla (playoffs) | CF América | 10 | 6 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Liguilla (playoffs) | Toluca | 11 | 6 | +10 | 20 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 11 | 3 | +4 | 13 |
Next matches
- LeónCF América18 October · Liga MX3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- MonterreyPachuca19 October · Liga MX4827241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
Liga MX on the same day
- 3830321The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.3.1
- 3727361The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
- 2428472The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →