English Premier League, round 9 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Chelsea — Manchester United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Chelsea are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Chelsea are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Chelsea — No. 6, 10 pts; Manchester United — No. 13, 6 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Manchester United: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Chelsea 2 wins, Manchester United 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chelsea — Manchester United What is xG? | 1.8–1.4 | |
| Chelsea not to lose | 71% | |
| Manchester United not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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Form
- 10.10AFC Bournemouth5:1
- 18.09away · Brentford0:3
- 12.09Hull City2:2
- 09.09Leeds United6:3
- 06.09away · Arsenal1:2
- 13.10away · Atlético Madrid0:2
- 10.10Tottenham Hotspur1:1
- 20.09away · Fulham1:1
- 16.09Brighton & Hove Albion2:3
- 13.09Manchester City0:1
Head to head
- 18.04.2026Chelsea — Manchester United0:1
- 20.09.2025Manchester United — Chelsea2:1
- 16.05.2025Chelsea — Manchester United1:0
- 03.11.2024Manchester United — Chelsea1:1
- 04.04.2024Chelsea — Manchester United4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Everton | 6 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
Premier League on the same day
- AFC BournemouthLeeds Unitedpreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- BrentfordNottingham Forestpreliminary5028231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Coventry CitySunderlandpreliminary363133XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.5
- Hull CityIpswich Townpreliminary4230281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- Manchester CityBrighton & Hove Albionpreliminary5924171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- Tottenham HotspurCrystal Palacepreliminary362935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.8
- Aston VillaFulhampreliminary4430271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →