J1 League (Japan), round 11 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Fagiano Okayama FC — Mito Hollyhock
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Fagiano Okayama FC are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Fagiano Okayama FC are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Fagiano Okayama FC — No. 9, 13 pts; Mito Hollyhock — No. 13, 9 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Mito Hollyhock: 3 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Fagiano Okayama FC — Mito Hollyhock What is xG? | 1.6–0.8 | |
| Fagiano Okayama FC not to lose | 81% | |
| Mito Hollyhock not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Fagiano Okayama FC
- Fagiano Okayama FC goals
- Mito Hollyhock goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Avispa Fukuoka1:2
- 19.09Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
- 13.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds2:1
- 06.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:2
- 02.09away · JEF United Chiba2:1
- 11.10Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
- 19.09away · Yokohama F.Marinos0:2
- 12.09Kawasaki Frontale0:1
- 05.09away · Avispa Fukuoka1:1
- 02.09Kashima Antlers4:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
J1 League on the same day
- Avispa FukuokaGamba Osakapreliminary4029311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- FC TokyoKashiwa Reysolpreliminary4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- Kawasaki FrontaleVissel Kobepreliminary3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Kyoto Sanga FCKashima Antlerspreliminary2626472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osakapreliminary3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Shimizu S-PulseMachida Zelviapreliminary2628462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- V-Varen NagasakiSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1422642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- Yokohama F.MarinosTokyo Verdypreliminary5029211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →