Major League Soccer (MLS), round 33 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
FC Cincinnati — Philadelphia Union
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Philadelphia Union are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 69%, both teams to score — 72%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Philadelphia Union are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: FC Cincinnati — No. 16, 36 pts; Philadelphia Union — No. 12, 42 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Philadelphia Union: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Cincinnati 2 wins, Philadelphia Union 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Cincinnati — Philadelphia Union What is xG? | 1.7–2.0 | |
| FC Cincinnati not to lose | 56% | |
| Philadelphia Union not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 28% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 69% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 31% |
177 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati goals
- Philadelphia Union goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 11.10away · Atlanta United3:1
- 27.09away · CF Montréal1:3
- 20.09away · Houston Dynamo FC2:2
- 13.09Charlotte FC3:3
- 10.09away · Philadelphia Union0:5
- 11.10Real Salt Lake2:1
- 27.09Orlando City4:2
- 20.09away · Sporting Kansas City4:3
- 14.09away · San Diego FC5:0
- 10.09FC Cincinnati5:0
Head to head
- 10.09.2026Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati5:0
- 31.08.2025FC Cincinnati — Philadelphia Union0:1
- 02.03.2025Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati4:1
- 20.10.2024Philadelphia Union — FC Cincinnati1:2
- 20.06.2024FC Cincinnati — Philadelphia Union4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | +13 | 42 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | +11 | 42 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Seattle Sounders FC | 28 | 11 | +3 | 41 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | -15 | 37 |
| 16, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 17, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | LA Galaxy | 29 | 9 | -11 | 36 |
MLS on the same day
- Charlotte FCOrlando Citypreliminary5125251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.7
- Columbus CrewDC Unitedpreliminary5425201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- New York City FCCF Montréalpreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Sporting Kansas CityFC Dallaspreliminary3227412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:33.1
- St. Louis CitySan Diego FCpreliminary5425201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →