Russian Premier League, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Ozon Arena
FC Krasnodar — Zenit St. Petersburg
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2:3Missed
In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (33%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 33% fails in about 67 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: FC Krasnodar 37%, Zenit St. Petersburg 30%, draw 33%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Krasnodar are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- FC Krasnodar: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Krasnodar 1 win, Zenit St. Petersburg 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Krasnodar — Zenit St. Petersburg What is xG? | 1.2–1.1 | |
| FC Krasnodar not to lose | 70% | |
| Zenit St. Petersburg not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Krasnodar
- FC Krasnodar goals
- Zenit St. Petersburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 17.09away · FC Orenburg0:0
- 13.09Akron Togliatti1:1
- 05.09away · Krylya Sovetov Samara2:2
- 01.09away · Fakel1:1
- 29.08FC Rostov1:0
- 16.09away · Baltika3:2
- 12.09Lokomotiv Moscow2:1
- 05.09CSKA Moscow1:2
- 02.09Dynamo Makhachkala3:0
- 29.08away · Fakel1:0
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Zenit St. Petersburg — FC Krasnodar1:1
- 21.09.2025FC Krasnodar — Zenit St. Petersburg0:2
- 13.04.2025Zenit St. Petersburg — FC Krasnodar4:1
- 28.09.2024FC Krasnodar — Zenit St. Petersburg2:0
- 13.04.2024FC Krasnodar — Zenit St. Petersburg1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dinamo Moscow | 10 | 7 | +7 | 22 |
| 3 | Zenit St. Petersburg | 10 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
Next matches
- FC KrasnodarFakel13 October · Russian Cup841151The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 4:0.3.6
- Dynamo MakhachkalaZenit St. Petersburg14 October · Russian Cup1017732The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.2
Russian Premier League on the same day
- 403426XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X4:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.2
- 263440XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:5Final score 0:5. Model's score: 1:1.2.3
- 1930522The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →