K League 1 (South Korea), round 33 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Gimcheon Sangmu — Daejeon Hana Citizen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Gimcheon Sangmu 33%, Daejeon Hana Citizen 37%, draw 30%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Gimcheon Sangmu — No. 10, 33 pts; Daejeon Hana Citizen — No. 6, 43 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Daejeon Hana Citizen: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu 1 win, Daejeon Hana Citizen 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gimcheon Sangmu — Daejeon Hana Citizen What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Gimcheon Sangmu not to lose | 63% | |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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- Handicap Gimcheon Sangmu
- Gimcheon Sangmu goals
- Daejeon Hana Citizen goals
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Form
- 10.10FC Anyang0:1
- 19.09away · Bucheon FC 19952:0
- 13.09Gangwon FC2:2
- 09.09away · Pohang Steelers0:0
- 06.09Gwangju FC2:2
- 09.10Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:1
- 20.09away · Incheon United1:1
- 12.09Pohang Steelers2:2
- 09.09FC Anyang3:2
- 05.09away · Bucheon FC 19955:0
Head to head
- 25.07.2026Gimcheon Sangmu — Daejeon Hana Citizen3:2
- 14.03.2026Daejeon Hana Citizen — Gimcheon Sangmu1:1
- 30.11.2025Gimcheon Sangmu — Daejeon Hana Citizen0:3
- 31.08.2025Daejeon Hana Citizen — Gimcheon Sangmu2:1
- 18.06.2025Daejeon Hana Citizen — Gimcheon Sangmu0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Championship round | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 31 | 11 | +9 | 44 |
| 6, Championship round | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 31 | 11 | +10 | 43 |
| 7, Relegation round | Incheon United | 31 | 11 | +6 | 42 |
| 9, Relegation round | Pohang Steelers | 31 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 10, Relegation round | Gimcheon Sangmu | 31 | 5 | -7 | 33 |
| 11, Relegation round | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
K League 1 on the same day
- FC AnyangJeonbuk Hyundai Motors FCpreliminary2730442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
- Bucheon FC 1995Gwangju FCpreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
- Incheon UnitedJeju SKpreliminary4431251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- FC SeoulGangwon FCpreliminary5427191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- Ulsan HD FCPohang Steelerspreliminary4330281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →