K League 1 (South Korea), round 31 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Gwangju World Cup Stadium
Gwangju FC — Ulsan HD FC
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In short
Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Ulsan HD FC to win (49%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 49% fails in about 51 matches out of 100 on average.
Ulsan HD FC are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ulsan HD FC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Gwangju FC: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Gwangju FC 1 win, Ulsan HD FC 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gwangju FC — Ulsan HD FC What is xG? | 1.2–1.7 | |
| Gwangju FC not to lose | 51% | |
| Ulsan HD FC not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC goals
- Ulsan HD FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:2
- 13.09FC Anyang1:1
- 09.09Jeju SK0:1
- 06.09away · Gimcheon Sangmu2:2
- 30.08FC Seoul2:5
- 19.09away · FC Anyang1:2
- 12.09Incheon United2:1
- 08.09FC Seoul1:0
- 05.09away · Jeju SK0:0
- 29.08Gimcheon Sangmu3:1
Head to head
- 05.07.2026Gwangju FC — Ulsan HD FC1:1
- 19.04.2026Ulsan HD FC — Gwangju FC5:1
- 22.11.2025Gwangju FC — Ulsan HD FC2:0
- 18.10.2025Ulsan HD FC — Gwangju FC2:0
- 28.05.2025Gwangju FC — Ulsan HD FC1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | FC Seoul | 31 | 20 | +32 | 65 |
| 2, Championship round | Ulsan HD FC | 31 | 14 | +4 | 47 |
| 3, Championship round | Gangwon FC | 31 | 11 | +10 | 46 |
| 11, Relegation round | Bucheon FC 1995 | 31 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
| 12, Relegation play-off | Gwangju FC | 31 | 2 | -41 | 18 |
Next matches
- Ulsan HD FCBucheon FC 199517 October · K League 15625191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Daejeon Hana CitizenGwangju FC18 October · K League 16024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →