Scottish Premiership, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Tynecastle Park
Heart of Midlothian — St. Mirren
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
5:0Came true
In short
Final score 5:0: the model's most likely outcome, Heart of Midlothian to win (57%), came true.
Heart of Midlothian are clear favourites: 57% against 17% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Heart of Midlothian are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- St. Mirren: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Heart of Midlothian 3 wins, St. Mirren 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian — St. Mirren What is xG? | 1.6–0.8 | |
| Heart of Midlothian not to lose | 83% | |
| St. Mirren not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian goals
- St. Mirren goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Kilmarnock1:1
- 15.09away · Falkirk1:2
- 06.09Dundee FC2:1
- 03.09away · Hibernian3:1
- 29.08St. Johnstone2:1
- 19.09Dundee United0:3
- 09.09away · Rangers0:1
- 05.09Celtic1:2
- 02.09away · Kilmarnock1:0
- 30.08Motherwell3:3
Head to head
- 03.02.2026St. Mirren — Heart of Midlothian1:0
- 14.01.2026Heart of Midlothian — St. Mirren2:0
- 29.10.2025St. Mirren — Heart of Midlothian2:2
- 26.02.2025Heart of Midlothian — St. Mirren3:1
- 19.10.2024Heart of Midlothian — St. Mirren4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Championship round | Rangers | 8 | 6 | +6 | 19 |
| 3, Championship round | Heart of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
| 4, Championship round | Dundee FC | 8 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 6, Championship round | Dundee United | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7, Relegation round | St. Mirren | 8 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 8, Relegation round | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
Next matches
- Heart of MidlothianNordsjælland15 October · Conference League4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- AberdeenSt. Mirren17 October · Scottish Premiership4829231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- 3129392The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5724191The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 821261The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →